Pitfalls using MAPE as forecast accuracy metric
Updated version
An extended version of this article, with an energy example, a section on what a good MAPE is and further references, is on our blog: Pitfalls of Using MAPE as a Forecast Accuracy Metric (Deutsch).
Introduction
Despite being a very popular metric for measuring forecast accuracy in forecasting, MAPE certainly has its strengths and limitations that anyone using it should take into consideration. This deep review of the efficacy of MAPE for measuring forecast accuracy in any kind of forecasting task like heat demand, solar- or wind power and inspect the metric’s behavior in different scenarios. For scenarios where MAPE is not suitable, alternative metrics are discussed.