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Evaluation

🌞 Uncertainty Quantification in Renewable Energy Forecasting: A Guide to Smarter Predictions in 2025

Renewable energy forecasting plays a crucial role in the sustainable energy ecosystem. However, the inherently variable nature of renewable sources like solar and wind presents a unique challenge: uncertainty. Tackling this uncertainty effectively can help improve energy grid stability, reduce costs, and foster efficient resource allocation. In this article, we'll dive into uncertainty quantification (UQ) in renewable energy forecasting, exploring its sources, methods, and benefits. Let’s navigate this exciting landscape! 🚀

How to Evaluate Forecasts for the Energy Sector in 2025 ⚡📊

Forecasting is a cornerstone of the energy sector, enabling decision-making for operations, investments, and policy development. However, the real value of a forecast lies in its evaluation and cross-validation. How well did it predict reality? Here’s a step-by-step guide to evaluating forecasts, focusing on understanding the process, selecting the right forecasts, and comparing them against observations.

Pitfalls using MAPE as forecast accuracy metric

Introduction

Despite being a very popular metric for measuring forecast accuracy in forecasting, MAPE certainly has its strengths and limitations that anyone using it should take into consideration. This deep review of the efficacy of MAPE for measuring forecast accuracy in any kind of forecasting task like heat demand, solar- or wind power and inspect the metric’s behavior in different scenarios. For scenarios where MAPE is not suitable, alternative metrics are discussed.